A combinatorial theory of institutional invention

Abstract From climate change to disruptive technologies, policymakers constantly face new problems calling for unprecedented institutional solutions. Yet, we still poorly understand the inventive process leading emergence of forms. Existing theories argue that exogenous changes provide incentives and opportunities invention. However, they fail explain how endogenously structures their emergence. Drawing from complexity theory Brian Arthur's work on technological inventions, develop a structural recasting inventing institutions as combination pre-existing institutions. Building three assumptions related this combinatorial process, distance between shapes forms regime's trajectory. Following initial take-off in number inventions at creation regime, expect rate over replications will slow down nearby are combined accelerate distant ones combined. We illustrate these expectations by looking regimes: data privacy, governance, investment protection. Together, showcase our can help make sense and, more generally, pace unfolding various international regimes.